The outcome of the Iowa caucuses solidifies the top echelon, or more precisely, the top two tiers: Donald Trump secured the win, and following a notable gap, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley essentially ended up in a tie for the second position.
On January 15, former President Donald Trump emerged victorious in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, marking his triumph in the initial election contest of 2024. (Video: Blair Guild/The Washington Post, Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
During the evening, we have been juxtaposing Trump’s 2024 performance with the combined performance of Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) eight years prior. This comparison remained consistent, as Trump’s county-level performance deviated by an average of merely 2 percentage points from the combined performance in 2016.
He improved by two points. In 59 out of Iowa’s 99 counties, he surpassed the Trump-Cruz support from 2016. Currently, he is on track to secure victory in all three counties where he performed least favorably in 2016.
Despite facing competition from several other Republicans, Trump garnered greater support in 27 counties compared to his performance in the 2020 general election.
On average, his performance in Iowa’s counties tonight was only about 5 points lower than it was in November 2020.
The average remained consistent in both suburban and rural counties. Similar to his performance in 2016, Trump exhibited stronger results in rural counties. However, in a notable shift, he also garnered over half the vote on average in suburban counties this time. As anticipated, both Haley and DeSantis performed better in suburban counties compared to rural ones.
It’s a matter of fine distinctions, really. Trump is anticipated to secure victory in every county except one: Johnson County, where, due to its high percentage of college-educated residents, Trump faced notable challenges in 2016.
Nikki Haley is currently ahead by a single vote in that area.
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